Posts

Over the past year or so, I've converged on an approach on working alongside AI that I haven't seen coherently described elsewhere.

Distinction between tactics and strategy

As Ethan Mollick explains, you can never outsource your strategy. This doesn't necessarily hold because human judgment is somehow magical and inherently valuable (I wish it were), rather that what we refer to as strategy is the application of the human value function on long-horizon tasks; whether you picked the right strategy is only clear after months or years, and even if it has failed, failure is overdetermined. Thus it's very hard to teach agents to do seemingly not-Fields-medal worthy tasks such as running a gas station, hiring and firing, or setting which goals are worth pursuing. (I also don't expect agents to get much better at these tasks soon.)

Dario Amodei, March 10th 2025:

"I think we will be there in 3-6 months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code."

He was pretty much right.

Right now it's software engineers.

And right now they keep saying how it's imperfect it's slop it'll create tons of problems and my future job will be to fix it.