People don't understand exponentials, March 2026

Dario Amodei, March 10th 2025:

"I think we will be there in 3-6 months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code."

He was pretty much right.

Right now it's software engineers.

And right now they keep saying how it's imperfect it's slop it'll create tons of problems and my future job will be to fix it.

people don't fucking understand exponentials.

The next generation of models cleans up after the previous.

The very competent engineers correctly understood that the previous generations weren't good enough to really use. But they didn't play with the not-good-enough models and didn't see how each next generation was indeed capable of cleaning up after the previous.

the cleanup, the testing, the deslop

all of this is just another capability.

is the takeoff just people saying; oh, AI does this, this is the new equilibrium, now your job is this Current Thing but over and over again, not realizing what's happening?

(not that there's something else to do, really, to be clear. just the lack of situational awareness is dazzling.)